POSSIBLE CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON SURAT CITY

Surat lies in the coastal flood plain of Tapi and is one of the highly flood prone cities of India. Heavy local rainfall and/or emergency discharges from upstream reservoirs can cause severe floods. The 2006 Floods submerged more than three fourth of the city while 1998 floods are still remembered as one of the worst floods. During last two decades, floods affected Surat in 1994, 1998, 2002 and 2006.

The climate model indicates that precipitation is likely to increase in the region along with increase in frequency of extreme events. The city lies towards northern most part of the western coastal humid zone, and arid zone is only few hundred km towards north. Slightest deviation in climate either ways is likely to impact Surat, which already falls under flood risk prone zone. Surat lies in a flat terrain at an altitude about 10 m above the mean sea level. Sea level rise of even couple of meters will shift the tidal zone towards the city which can worsen the flood situation.

Click Image to Enlarge	Annual Rainfall change 2020 - (Avg 1950 -2000) Global climate models indicate an increase in precipitation to the order of 50 to 100 mm, increased variability and an increase in extreme precipitation events for this region. The A2a precipitation scenarios for 2020 is shown in the figure.
Click Image to Enlarge	Map Showing LECZ area for Surat and surrounding region The other major risk that the city faces is sea level rise. Surat is located about 15 km from coast and the altitude is less than 13 m above mean sea level. The map below shows the Low Elevation Coastal Zone. While it is improbable that there will be rise of 10 metres in any part of the world at least in the future, the map shows the vulnerability of the city. Model simulations for India predict a rise in sea level by 46 to 59 cm along Indian coastline- which is comparable with the projected global mean sea level rise of 50 cm by the end of this century (Aggarwal, 2002).